How to read a token unlock schedule before you buy

You're looking at a token that's up 40% this month. Before you buy, one question matters more than the chart: how much supply is still locked up, and when does it hit the market?

A token unlock schedule tells you when team, investor, and treasury tokens become sellable. Ignore it and you might buy right before a wave of cheap supply lands on exchanges.

Where do you find the unlock schedule?

Most projects publish this in their tokenomics docs or a Notion page linked from their website. Third-party trackers pull it into a chart automatically.

Token Unlocks aggregates schedules for hundreds of tokens with countdown timers.
The project's own docs or blog post at launch usually has the original allocation table.
Etherscan or a chain explorer lets you check vesting contract addresses directly if you want to verify the dates yourself.

Cross-check two sources. Trackers sometimes lag when a project quietly amends its schedule.

What are you actually looking for?

Four numbers matter: total supply, circulating supply, cliff date, and vesting length. The gap between circulating and total supply is the overhang.

Circulating supply: what's tradeable right now.
Total supply: what will eventually exist, including locked tokens.
Cliff: a period where zero tokens unlock, then a lump releases all at once.
Linear vesting: tokens unlock gradually, often monthly or even daily, after the cliff.

Say a token has 200 million circulating out of a 1 billion total supply. That's an 800 million token overhang, five times the current float. If most of that unlocks over the next 18 months, expect steady sell pressure regardless of how good the product is.

How does a cliff actually hit the price?

A cliff unlock dumps a large percentage of supply into circulation on one day. If insiders bought at $0.05 and the token trades at $0.50, even a partial sale locks in a 10x gain, and many will take it.

Look at Aptos as a case study. Its published unlock schedule showed roughly 11% of supply unlocking for investors and core contributors around the one-year mark in October 2023. The token dropped over 25% in the two weeks around that date, even though nothing changed about the network itself.

Size of the unlock relative to circulating supply, not total supply, is what moves price.
A 5% unlock on top of a 90% circulating float barely registers.
The same 5% unlock on top of a 15% circulating float can double the tradeable amount overnight.

What's the catch with just avoiding cliff dates?

Timing around a known unlock sounds simple, but the market often prices it in early. Traders who watch these calendars start selling weeks ahead, so the actual unlock day can be quiet while the drop already happened.

Check if the token already fell 20-30% in the month before the unlock date. If so, some of the sell pressure is priced in.
Watch open interest and funding rates on perps if you want to see if shorts are already positioned for it.
Some teams stagger unlocks into smaller weekly or monthly tranches specifically to avoid a single shock day. That's usually better for holders.

What should you check before you buy?

Run through this before putting money in, especially on anything under two years old.

What percentage of total supply is currently circulating? Under 30% means a large overhang is still coming.
When is the next unlock, and how big is it relative to current circulating supply?
Is the vesting linear or cliff-based? Cliffs create sharper, more predictable price shocks.
Who receives the unlocked tokens? Team and early investors are more likely to sell than a DAO treasury or staking rewards pool.
Has the project changed its schedule before? A history of delays or accelerations is a signal to recheck closer to your entry date.

None of this tells you whether the project itself is good. It tells you whether the supply math is working with you or against you over the next few months.