The 5-Minute Crypto Cheat Sheet

1. How to tell real traction from rented traction

A number is only a signal if it survives the incentive that created it. Before you trust a growth chart, ask what happens when the rewards stop.

• Fees and revenue the protocol actually earns beat any vanity metric. Real usage pays for itself.
• Total value locked that holds up when token prices fall is real. TVL that only grew because prices rose, or because a high yield paid people to show up, is rented and leaves when the yield does.
• Active users that are not wash. A handful of addresses cycling volume is not adoption.

2. Four questions to ask before any trade

1. Who is on the other side, and why? Every trade has a seller. If you cannot say why they are wrong, you may be the one who is.
2. What is my thesis, and what would disprove it? If nothing could change your mind, it is not a thesis, it is a bag.
3. What is the downside if I am wrong? Size the position to that answer, not to the upside.
4. Am I early, or just wrong? They look identical for a long time. Being right too soon still costs you.

3. On-chain signals that matter, and the ones that don't

The blockchain is public, so people quote it constantly. Most of what gets quoted is noise.

• Worth watching: exchange netflows (coins leaving exchanges usually means holders are settling in), stablecoin supply (dry powder and real usage), protocol revenue, and holder concentration (how much sits in a few wallets).
• Mostly noise: raw transaction counts, "whale alert" transfers (often just an exchange moving its own funds), and social-media volume.

4. The one chart that explains most pumps

Put price next to funding rates and open interest. When price rises while funding and open interest climb with it, the move is powered by leverage, and leverage unwinds violently. When price rises on spot buying with funding flat, the move is slower and stickier. Same green candle, two completely different situations. Knowing which one you are looking at is most of the job.